The field was founded on the assumption that human intelligence "can be so precisely described that a machine can be made to simulate it".[b]This raised philosophical arguments about the mind and the ethical consequences of creating artificial beings endowed with human-like intelligence; these issues have previously been explored by myth, fiction and philosophy since antiquity.[13] Computer scientists and philosophers have since suggested that AI may become an existential risk to humanity if its rational capacities are not steered towards beneficial goals.[c]
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Artificial beings with intelligence appeared as storytelling devices in antiquity,[14]and have been common in fiction, as in Mary Shelley's Frankenstein or Karel Čapek's R.U.R.[15] These characters and their fates raised many of the same issues now discussed in the ethics of artificial intelligence.[16]
By the 1950s, two visions for how to achieve machine intelligence emerged. One vision, known as Symbolic AI or GOFAI, was to use computers to create a symbolic representation of the world and systems that could reason about the world. Proponents included Allen Newell, Herbert A. Simon, and Marvin Minsky. Closely associated with this approach was the "heuristic search" approach, which likened intelligence to a problem of exploring a space of possibilities for answers. The second vision, known as the connectionist approach, sought to achieve intelligence through learning. Proponents of this approach, most prominently Frank Rosenblatt, sought to connect Perceptron in ways inspired by connections of neurons.[20] James Manyika and others have compared the two approaches to the mind (Symbolic AI) and the brain (connectionist). Manyika argues that symbolic approaches dominated the push for artificial intelligence in this period, due in part to its connection to intellectual traditions of Descartes, Boole, Gottlob Frege, Bertrand Russell, and others. Connectionist approaches based on cybernetics or artificial neural networks were pushed to the background but have gained new prominence in recent decades.[21]
Researchers in the 1960s and the 1970s were convinced that symbolic approaches would eventually succeed in creating a machine with artificial general intelligence and considered this the goal of their field.[29]Herbert Simon predicted, "machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing any work a man can do".[30]Marvin Minsky agreed, writing, "within a generation ... the problem of creating 'artificial intelligence' will substantially be solved".[31] They had failed to recognize the difficulty of some of the remaining tasks. Progress slowed and in 1974, in response to the criticism of Sir James Lighthill[32]and ongoing pressure from the US Congress to fund more productive projects, both the U.S. and British governments cut off exploratory research in AI. The next few years would later be called an "AI winter", a period when obtaining funding for AI projects was difficult.[7]
AI gradually restored its reputation in the late 1990s and early 21st century by finding specific solutions to specific problems. The narrow focus allowed researchers to produce verifiable results, exploit more mathematical methods, and collaborate with other fields (such as statistics, economics and mathematics).[40]By 2000, solutions developed by AI researchers were being widely used, although in the 1990s they were rarely described as "artificial intelligence".[10]
Numerous academic researchers became concerned that AI was no longer pursuing the original goal of creating versatile, fully intelligent machines. Much of current research involves statistical AI, which is overwhelmingly used to solve specific problems, even highly successful techniques such as deep learning. This concern has led to the subfield of artificial general intelligence (or "AGI"), which had several well-funded institutions by the 2010s.[11]
A machine with general intelligence can solve a wide variety of problems with breadth and versatility similar to human intelligence. There are several competing ideas about how to develop artificial general intelligence. Hans Moravec and Marvin Minsky argue that work in different individual domains can be incorporated into an advanced multi-agent system or cognitive architecture with general intelligence.[80]Pedro Domingos hopes that there is a conceptually straightforward, but mathematically difficult, "master algorithm" that could lead to AGI.[81]Others believe that anthropomorphic features like an artificial brain[82]or simulated child development[l]will someday reach a critical point where general intelligence emerges.
Deep learning[124]uses several layers of neurons between the network's inputs and outputs. The multiple layers can progressively extract higher-level features from the raw input. For example, in image processing, lower layers may identify edges, while higher layers may identify the concepts relevant to a human such as digits or letters or faces.[125] Deep learning has drastically improved the performance of programs in many important subfields of artificial intelligence, including computer vision, speech recognition, image classification[126] and others.
AI is relevant to any intellectual task.[134]Modern artificial intelligence techniques are pervasive and are too numerous to list here.[135]Frequently, when a technique reaches mainstream use, it is no longer considered artificial intelligence; this phenomenon is described as the AI effect.[136]
Game playing has been a test of AI's strength since the 1950s. Deep Blue became the first computer chess-playing system to beat a reigning world chess champion, Garry Kasparov, on 11 May 1997.[143] In 2011, in a Jeopardy! quiz show exhibition match, IBM's question answering system, Watson, defeated the two greatest Jeopardy! champions, Brad Rutter and Ken Jennings, by a significant margin.[144] In March 2016, AlphaGo won 4 out of 5 games of Go in a match with Go champion Lee Sedol, becoming the first computer Go-playing system to beat a professional Go player without handicaps.[145] Other programs handle imperfect-information games; such as for poker at a superhuman level, Pluribus[o] and Cepheus.[147] DeepMind in the 2010s developed a "generalized artificial intelligence" that could learn many diverse Atari games on its own.[148]
No established unifying theory or paradigm has guided AI research for most of its history.[q] The unprecedented success of statistical machine learning in the 2010s eclipsed all other approaches (so much so that some sources, especially in the business world, use the term "artificial intelligence" to mean "machine learning with neural networks"). This approach is mostly sub-symbolic, neat, soft and narrow (see below). Critics argue that these questions may have to be revisited by future generations of AI researchers.
The issue is not resolved: sub-symbolic reasoning can make many of the same inscrutable mistakes that human intuition does, such as algorithmic bias. Critics such as Noam Chomsky argue continuing research into symbolic AI will still be necessary to attain general intelligence,[170][171] in part because sub-symbolic AI is a move away from explainable AI: it can be difficult or impossible to understand why a modern statistical AI program made a particular decision. The emerging field of neurosymbolic artificial intelligence attempts to bridge the two approaches.
AI researchers are divided as to whether to pursue the goals of artificial general intelligence and superintelligence (general AI) directly or to solve as many specific problems as possible (narrow AI) in hopes these solutions will lead indirectly to the field's long-term goals.[174][175]General intelligence is difficult to define and difficult to measure, and modern AI has had more verifiable successes by focusing on specific problems with specific solutions. The experimental sub-field of artificial general intelligence studies this area exclusively.
If research into artificial general intelligence produced sufficiently intelligent software, it might be able to reprogram and improve itself. The improved software would be even better at improving itself, leading to recursive self-improvement.[187]Its intelligence would increase exponentially in an intelligence explosion and could dramatically surpass humans. Science fiction writer Vernor Vinge named this scenario the "singularity".[188]Because it is difficult or impossible to know the limits of intelligence or the capabilities of superintelligent machines, the technological singularity is an occurrence beyond which events are unpredictable or even unfathomable.[189]
Edward Fredkin argues that "artificial intelligence is the next stage in evolution", an idea first proposed by Samuel Butler's "Darwin among the Machines" as far back as 1863, and expanded upon by George Dyson in his book of the same name in 1998.[191]
Unlike previous waves of automation, many middle-class jobs may be eliminated by artificial intelligence; The Economist states that "the worry that AI could do to white-collar jobs what steam power did to blue-collar ones during the Industrial Revolution" is "worth taking seriously".[196]Jobs at extreme risk range from paralegals to fast food cooks, while job demand is likely to increase for care-related professions ranging from personal healthcare to the clergy.[197]
The opinion of experts and industry insiders is mixed, with sizable fractions both concerned and unconcerned by risk from eventual superhumanly-capable AI.[209]Stephen Hawking, Microsoft founder Bill Gates, history professor Yuval Noah Harari, and SpaceX founder Elon Musk have all expressed serious misgivings about the future of AI.[210]Prominent tech titans including Peter Thiel (Amazon Web Services) and Musk have committed more than $1 billion to nonprofit companies that champion responsible AI development, such as OpenAI and the Future of Life Institute.[211]Mark Zuckerberg (CEO, Facebook) has said that artificial intelligence is helpful in its current form and will continue to assist humans.[212]Other experts argue is that the risks are far enough in the future to not be worth researching,or that humans will be valuable from the perspective of a superintelligent machine.[213]Rodney Brooks, in particular, has said that "malevolent" AI is still centuries away.[u] 2ff7e9595c
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